Steph Curry shooting
The new look Warriors have seen their updated season win totals and odds to make playoffs take a hit. By Cyrus Saatcsaz (Wiki Commons) [CCLicense]
  • Golden State Warriors off to rocky 1-2 start to open 2019-20 NBA season
  • Win total has fallen from 48.5 to 43.5
  • Odds to make playoffs have plummeted as well

Golden State’s 1-2 start to the season, including blowout losses to the Thunder and Clippers, has seen their NBA Playoff odds move significantly. Ahead of opening night, the Warriors were at -500 to make the playoffs.

Just three games into the campaign, they are at +125 to play postseason basketball.

BetOnline’s 2019-20 Win totals have also shifted for the Warriors. Before their season began, Golden State’s win total was set at 48.5. It is now 43.5.

Golden State Warriors Season Win Total

Warriors Wins Odds at BetOnline
Over 43.5 -110
Under 43.5 -110

All Odds taken Oct. 30

Understandable Reaction

Warriors season predictions were varied ahead of their first game against the Clippers. Starting in such poor fashion with two heavy defeats, however, still sent shockwaves throughout the league.

Losing to a Clippers team that had already beaten the Lakers was one thing, getting outplayed by the rebuilding Thunder was more alarming.

It’s not surprising to see such a quick move from the betting markets. In the absence of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, there was uncertainty about what this Warriors team would look like. A lot of people’s expectations flipped after the first two games – Golden State went from an expected playoff team to a franchise in transition.

The truth is somewhere in between. The numbers are ugly, of course. They have the worst defensive rating in the league, and only five teams have a worse effective field goal percentage.

This start has been poor, but maybe it’s a sign that we should have expected this from a roster that has lost so much talent and has started the year without Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein manning the front court.

Golden State Warriors Odds To Make Playoffs

Warriors To Make Playoffs Odds at BetOnline
Yes +125
No -145

Importance of Draymond Green

Draymond Green has been brutally honest about their team’s performances. He backed his words up by playing a key role in the Warriors’ win over the New Orleans Pelicans in their third game of the season, notching a triple-double with 16 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists.

Steve Kerr moved Green to center against the Pelicans, which saw rookie Jordan Poole start the game. Poole’s presence improved Golden State’s spacing and the shooting guard made a quick impact, hitting three first-quarter triples.

Improving on this disappointing start depends a lot on Green. Being an option on the offensive end, and remaining aggressive, is crucial to ease the burden on Steph Curry, and to a lesser extent D’Angelo Russell.

Defensively, Green must be at his very best. If he can hold his own at the five against most opponents, it allows Kerr to run line-ups that will flow better offensively.

Star Power

For a team with three All-Star calibre players, the +125 to make the playoffs is always going to be tempting. The talents of Curry, Russell and Green will win them plenty of games. Whether Russell and Green are considered All-Stars or not, there’s no doubting the top-tier talent on Kerr’s roster.

Russell missed 12 of his 21 shots against the Pelicans, but he played a crucial role in the Warriors’ victory. Curry got into foul trouble in the third quarter, leaving the offense in Russell’s hands. D-Lo scored seven in the last six minutes of the quarter and assisted on two layups to help seal the win.

Adaptations to the offense are inevitable. This roster needs to play a different game – once Kerr adds more pick and rolls, Russell and Curry’s talents will be better utilized. It will take time, but this team still has playoff potential.

The health of Looney will play a big part in fixing some of their defensive issues. Golden State’s defensive rating was markedly better with Looney on the floor last season, and his absence shouldn’t be overlooked in their struggles on that end of the floor thus far.

Back The Over on Wins

It’s early to judge this Warriors team. The talent beyond Curry, Russell and Green was a concern, and that’s been amplified by Looney and Cauley-Stein being unavailable. The reaction to their poor start feels a little premature, though evaluating the performance against the Pelicans is tricky considering New Orleans’ struggles as well.

Adjustments to the offense will make a big difference. Curry is shooting just 26.7% from deep so far this season, which isn’t going to last long. The defense isn’t going to be great, but it won’t be the worst in the NBA either. Golden State’s nightmare start is a worst-case scenario of what this team could turn out to be.

The reality will likely be very different if Green can consistently play like he did against the Pelicans, more pick and rolls are run for Russell and Looney returns fully healthy.

With a home stand starting, the Warriors have an opportunity to move on from the drubbings against the Thunder and Clippers. This is a good chance to back them on over 43.5 wins as their win total could increase again if they record a few victories at Chase Center.

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