The first College Football Playoff Rankings will not be released until Tuesday, Nov. 5, but we do not want to wait that long to get a taste of how the CFP Selection Committee would vote today if they were ranking the top 25 teams in the nation. As such, we are here to project what the top 25 of the CFP Rankings would look like it was released a week early. It is a warmup act for the warmup act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one following conference championship Saturday. In this space, we try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head matters; sometimes, it doesn’t. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn’t. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn’t. Sometimes it’s about game control — whatever that is — or recency bias or … ah, you get the idea. What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after. With all of that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings would likely look if the committee released it today.
Note: Predictions in this story are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. My current playoff and bowl projections can be found here. College Football Playoff Rankings projection