Andre Drummond and the Pistons are a good bet to go over their win total. Photo By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The Denver Nuggets finished second in the Western Conference last season with 54 wins
  • The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks are being overlooked in the Western Conference
  • The young Atlanta Hawks should push for a .500 record in the weaker East

The 2019-20 NBA season is right around the corner, which means it’s last call for all sorts of season-long futures. That includes regular-season win totals, which are often one of the best places to find value on the board.

After sifting through the odds, here are the five regular-season win totals I love to go over their projection the most.

Denver Nuggets Regular Season Win Total

2019-20 Win Total Odds at BetOnline*
Over 52.5 -125
Under 52.5 +105

*All odds taken October 17, 2019

Nuggets Over 52.5

There were a lot of changes in the Western Conference with many teams acquiring stars or key free agents. The Denver Nuggets mostly stayed under the radar but I see that as a good thing. As we’ve seen in the past, making drastic changes to a roster doesn’t necessarily mean great improvement. Teams that build a culture can often beat that.

That’s what the Nuggets have as their young core of players pieced together a 54-win season last year. However, guys like Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Gary Harris are now a year older and should incrementally improve.

On top of that, they’ll add last year’s lottery pick to the mix as Michael Porter Jr. is finally healthy

While there was lots of hype around the other teams in the West, I like the Nuggets to be as good as last year – if not better – and get over their win total.

San Antonio Spurs Regular Season Win Total

2019-20 Win Total Odds at BetOnline*
Over 45.5 -110
Under 45.5 -110

Spurs Over 45.5

While there’s plenty of optimism about different teams in the Western Conference, few people are talking about the Spurs. This is a team that had about as bad of a season as they could have expected last year and they still won 48 games.

Remember that guys like first-round pick Lonnie Walker and Dejounte Murray missed huge chunks of the season.

This team was a paltry 16-25 on the road last season. Typically, they’re at least close to the .500 range in terms of their road performance.

There’s no question that there are arguably seven teams that are better than the Spurs on paper but even an eighth seed in the West should push for about 46-48 wins. The Spurs should be that eighth seed and they should get over 45.5.

Detroit Pistons Regular Season Win Total

2019-20 Win Total Odds at BetOnline*
Over 37.5 -110
Under 37.5 -110

Pistons Over 37.5

One of the regular season win totals that I don’t fully understand is the line facing the Pistons. This is a team that won 41 games last season and shouldn’t be any worse. Yes, they lost some shooters in Wayne Ellington and Reggie Bullock but they do have guys like Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown Jr. who should step up.

I think the biggest changed to this team will be the addition of Derrick Rose, who should give this team their best point guard they’ve had in a while. It’s not that Reggie Jackson is bad, but he hasn’t always been the best fit. With Rose there, Jackson can maybe play more off the ball. At any rate, it gives this team solid depth.

I don’t see why this team is three games worse than they were last year. I’ll bet the over.

Atlanta Hawks Regular Season Win Total

2019-20 Win Total Odds at BetOnline*
Over 34.5 -130
Under 34.5 +110

Atlanta Hawks Over 34.5

Like the Thunder, the Hawks are also faced with a low win total but they’re in a completely different position. This is a young team that has an electric young core with Trae Young, John Collins and Kevin Huerter, and now lottery picks De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish.

I also like how this team finishes last season as they were lost for most of the year, starting 22-45, but finished the year 7-8. With reinforcements coming in as well as internal growth from their young stars, the Hawks should get over 34.5 wins after winning 29 times last season.

Dallas Mavericks Regular Season Win Total

2019-20 Win Total Odds at BetOnline*
Over 40.5 -125
Under 40.5 +105

Dallas Mavericks Over 40.5

The Dallas Mavericks only won 33 games last season and haven’t really been talked about as a team that’s going to make a ton of noise in the 2019-20 season.

However, I think they’re being overlooked quite a bit here. While I don’t expect them to be a playoff unit, they should be above .500, which is what this prop is asking of them.

To start, you have to like the culture with ownership and coaching. We know that Rick Carlisle is a decent coach and can develop rosters. He should have a good one to work with here as he has a star in Luka Doncic, a former All-Star in Kristaps Porzingis and a number of other pieces that should help this team be decent.

The addition of Delon Wright at the point is a sneaky-good move as it gives them someone to run the show. He showed well as a starter last season, average 14.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.7 steals. Bringing back Seth Curry was also a smart move as he’ll give this bench a boost.

In my eyes, a starting five of Wright, Doncic, Porzingis, Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway Jr. are good enough to be a .500 unit in the West – especially with Carlisle coaching. Their bench is thin, so if they suffer injuries, everything goes south. However, assuming everyone stays healthy, I like the over.

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