Win 66% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 58 Wins

They were up 2-0 on the eventual champion. If they re-sign key players they’ll be in a great position to win it all next season. They have an 84.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 54.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 32.6%. They have 21.1% chance of winning the championship. Their 60 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.2 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 27-14 on the road and were expected to win 25.6. Their 80.5% home win percentage was better than expected (76.1%).

Win 67% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 57 Wins

These sims assume Kawhi Leonard is still on the team. They have an 84.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 51.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 28%. They have 18.3% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 55.2 wins. Their 58 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 78% home win percentage was better than expected (75.1%). They won 63.4% on the road which was better than expected (59.6%).

Win 63% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 54 Wins

This assumes Jimmy Butler is still on the team. They have a 71% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 33.3% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 15.3%. They have 8.4% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 49.5 wins. Their 51 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (50.5%). They won 31 at home and were expected to win 28.8.

If you are looking for the best NBA playoff picks visit Sportsline.com where you get both objective computer simulation based picks and ones made by the industry’s top handicappers.

Win 63% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 53 Wins

The Lakers are currently the projected #1 seed in the West with Anthony Davis. They are underdogs in simulations vs the East but if they can add some pure shooters they could get to where Vegas has them – the best chance to win the Championship. They have a 59.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 33.8% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 18.3%. They have 8.2% chance of winning the championship. Their 37 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.9 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 53.7% home win percentage was as expected (52.7%). They won 36.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (42.1%).

5 UTAH JAZZ 7.6% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 63% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 52 Wins

After upgrading from Ricky Rubio to Mike Conley they jumped 5 wins and all the way to the #2 Seed in the West. They have a 62.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 33.1% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 17.4%. They have 7.6% chance of winning the championship. Their 50 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.7 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (57%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 30.4.

Win 63% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 47 Wins

While their regular season projection is just 7th in the West, if they get Klay Thompson back near 100% by say February they still can make a run to win it all. They have a 48% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 25.9% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 14.2%. They have 6.8% chance of winning the championship. Their 57 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.9 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 27-14 on the road and were expected to win 27.7. Their 73.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (81%).

Win 62% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 52 Wins

They have a 56% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 30.4% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 15.9%. They have 6.8% chance of winning the championship. Their 53 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +6.1 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64.8%). They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (49.5%).

Win 61% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 51 Wins

They have a 52.6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 27% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 13.8%. They have 6.1% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went as expected. They won 53 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. Their strength was at home. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 23.2. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 29.

Win 60% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 51 Wins

This projection has them with Kyrie and Al Horford. Without Horford their win projection drops 4 wins. Without both they drop nearly 7 wins. They have a 54.7% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 25% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 11.3%. They have 4.9% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.1. Their 68.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.9%).

Win 60% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 51 Wins

They have a 53.9% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 24% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 10.6%. They have 4.7% chance of winning the championship. Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.5 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (46.9%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 26.3.

Win 59% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 49 Wins

They have a 41.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have an 17.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 7.5%. They have 2.6% chance of winning the championship. The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (46.8%).

Win 58% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 48 Wins

They have a 37.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 17.4% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 7.8%. They have 2.6% chance of winning the championship. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 50.6 wins. Their 54 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 82.9% home win percentage was much better than expected (71.7%). They won 48.8% on the road which was worse than expected (51.7%).

Win 56% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 46 Wins

They have a 30.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 11.8% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 4.3%. They have 1.5% chance of winning the championship. Their 49 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 65.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.6%). They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (54.4%).

Win 50% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 42 Wins

They have a 16.1% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 4% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.7%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. The regular season went as expected. They won 41 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.2.

Win 50% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 40 Wins

They have a 6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 1.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.4%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 42.4. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (60%). They won 53.7% on the road which was much better than expected (43.4%).

Win 48% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 40 Wins

They have a 10.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 2.3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.5%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.2 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (53.3%). They won 41.5% on the road which was better than expected (36.6%).

Win 49% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 40 Wins

They have a 12.4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 3.2% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.6%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 14.9. Their 56.1% home win percentage was better than expected (52.6%).

Win 48% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 39 Wins

They have a 3.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.2%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 35.6 wins. Their 39 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (35.7%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 20.9.

Win 47% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 38 Wins

They have a 2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.6% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 0.1%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.9 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 9-32 on the road and were expected to win 13.3. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.7%).

Win 45% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 37 Wins

They have a 4.5% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 1% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.2%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. Their 39 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 24.5.

Win 44% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 37 Wins

They have a 4% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 0.7% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 0.1%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6.

Win 43% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 35 Wins

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 38.3. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 24.4% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.1%). They won 22 at home and were expected to win 22.7.

Win 42% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 34 Wins

Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs. The regular season went better than expected. They won 29 games vs an expected win total of 25.6. Their strength was in road games. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 9.6. They won 17 at home and were expected to win 16.

Win 45% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 35 Wins

They were projected to win 37 games before the Mike Conley trade (and assuming they drafted Ja Morant). Without Conley or Morant this drops to 30 but with Ja Morant this goes back up to 35 wins. We do not project them to be a playoff team in ’19-20. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 33.5 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 13.6. Their 51.2% home win percentage was better than expected (48.6%).

Win 29% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 21 Wins

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 22.4 wins. Their 19 actual wins was below expectation. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 29.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (33.7%). They won 17.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (20.9%).

Win 25% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 18 Wins

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. Their 17 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.3 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (32.3%). They won 19.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (22.1%).

Win 41% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 32 Wins

Zion Williamson has a massive impact raising their projected win total from 25 to 32. But despite this massive leap, we do not project them to be a playoff team in ’19-20. There are simply too many teams in contention to win the West (8 to 10 depending on where Kawhi goes). The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 37.4. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.8%). They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38.4%).

Win 41% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 31 Wins

Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs. The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (53.6%). They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (39.2%).

Win 27% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 21 Wins

They are not playoff contenders based on our latest simulations. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 19 games vs an expected win total of 20.8. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 6-35 on the road and were expected to win 7.8. They won 13 at home and were expected to win 13.

Win 27% of Neutral Court Sims and Projected for 20 Wins

We do not project them to be a playoff team in ’19-20. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 22 games vs an expected win total of 25. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (36.2%). They won 31.7% on the road which was much better than expected (24.7%).





Source link