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Win 66% of Neutral Court Simulations

After losing game 1 the Warriors chances dropped from over 70 to just a shade over 51%. In the regular season the sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 60.9 wins. Their 57 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 27-14 on the road and were expected to win 27.7. Their 73.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (81%).

Win 61% of Neutral Court Simulations

Toronto won Game 1 and pulled into a virtual tie to win the Finals. Game 2 is basically a coni flip with Toronto holding a narrow 52-48 percent edge. The regular season went better than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 55.2. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 78% home win percentage was better than expected (75.1%). They won 63.4% on the road which was better than expected (59.6%).

Win 58% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 60 games vs an expected win total of 56.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 65.9% on the road which was better than expected (62.3%). They won 33 at home and were expected to win 31.2. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Bucks could take a step back next season.

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Win 50% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 50.6 wins. Their 54 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 21.2. They won 34 at home and were expected to win 29.4. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Nuggets could take a step back next season.

Win 49% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.9 wins. Their 53 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64.8%). They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (49.5%). The Trail Blazers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 57% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 53 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +0.9 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.6%). They won 53.7% on the road which was worse than expected (56.5%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rockets could take a step back next season.

Win 59% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 51 games vs an expected win total of 49.5. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.7. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 28.8. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the 76ers could take a step back next season.

Win 51% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 50 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.7 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.4. Their 70.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (74.1%). The Jazz may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 56% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 49 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (54.4%). They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29. The Thunder may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 46% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. Their strength was at home. They went 16-25 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64%). The Spurs may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 52.1 wins. Their 49 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.1. Their 68.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.9%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Celtics could take a step back next season.

Win 35% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (60%). They won 53.7% on the road which was much better than expected (43.4%). The Clippers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. Their 70.7% home win percentage was better than expected (64%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Pacers could take a step back next season.

Win 40% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 42 games vs an expected win total of 36.8. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 15. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (53.3%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Magic could take a step back next season.

Win 39% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (36.2%). They won 23 at home and were expected to win 21.6. The Nets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 36% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 41 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (58.9%). The Pistons may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 35.6. Their strength was at home. They won 36.6% on the road which was as expected (35.7%). They won 24 at home and were expected to win 20.9. The Kings may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 17. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (57.6%).

Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Hornets play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 39 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.4 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 24.5.

Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Lakers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38.9 wins. Their 37 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 36.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (42.1%). They won 22 at home and were expected to win 21.6.

Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 36 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (53.6%). They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (39.2%).

Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 37.4. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.7. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (52.8%).

Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Grizzlies could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 33.5 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. Their strength was at home. They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (33.1%). They won 21 at home and were expected to win 19.9.

Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Mavericks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 34.9. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.7%). They won 22% on the road which was much worse than expected (32.6%).

Win 19% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 38.3. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 24.4% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.1%). They won 22 at home and were expected to win 22.7. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Wizards could take a step back next season.

Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hawks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. The regular season went better than expected. They won 29 games vs an expected win total of 25.6. Their strength was in road games. They won 29.3% on the road which was much better than expected (23.4%). They won 17 at home and were expected to win 16.

Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Bulls are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 22 games vs an expected win total of 25. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (36.2%). They won 31.7% on the road which was much better than expected (24.7%).

Win 18% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 19 games vs an expected win total of 22.4. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 17.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (20.9%). They won 12 at home and were expected to win 13.8. The Suns may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Cavaliers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.8 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 6-35 on the road and were expected to win 7.8. Their 31.7% home win percentage was as expected (31.8%).

Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Knicks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 22.3 wins. Their 17 actual wins was below expectation. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (32.3%). They won 19.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (22.1%).





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