Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

After their Game 3 Win the Raptors are back up to a 54% chance to win the Finals. Their 58 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.8 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 26-15 on the road and were expected to win 24.4. Their 78% home win percentage was better than expected (75.1%). The Raptors may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 67% of Neutral Court Simulations

While they are currently the 46% underdog in the series, if Klay Thompson and Durant come back for Game 4 anywhere near 80% then they should be in great shape to come back. Their 57 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.9 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 73.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (81%). They won 65.9% on the road which was as expected (67.5%).

Win 57% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 60 games vs an expected win total of 56.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 27-14 on the road and were expected to win 25.6. Their 80.5% home win percentage was better than expected (76.1%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Bucks could take a step back next season.

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Win 51% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 54 games vs an expected win total of 50.6. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 82.9% home win percentage was much better than expected (71.7%). They won 48.8% on the road which was worse than expected (51.7%). The Nuggets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 53 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +6.1 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was as expected (49.5%). They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Trail Blazers could take a step back next season.

Win 56% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 53 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +0.9 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 53.7% on the road which was worse than expected (56.5%). They won 31 at home and were expected to win 29. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rockets could take a step back next season.

Win 58% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 51 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.5 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.7. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 28.8. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the 76ers could take a step back next season.

Win 50% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 50 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.7 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (57%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 30.4. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Jazz could take a step back next season.

Win 56% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 51.2. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (54.4%). They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Thunder could take a step back next season.

Win 45% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (46.8%). The Spurs may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 49 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.1 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 68.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.9%). They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (56.3%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Celtics could take a step back next season.

Win 35% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 53.7% on the road which was much better than expected (43.4%). They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.6. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Clippers could take a step back next season.

Win 45% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. Their 70.7% home win percentage was better than expected (64%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Pacers could take a step back next season.

Win 39% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 42 games vs an expected win total of 36.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 15. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (53.3%). The Magic may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 39% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much better than expected. They won 42 games vs an expected win total of 36.4. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 14.9. They won 23 at home and were expected to win 21.6. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Nets could take a step back next season.

Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.6 wins. Their 41 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (58.9%). They won 36.6% on the road which was worse than expected (40.1%). The Pistons may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 35.6 wins. Their 39 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 14.6. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 20.9. The Kings may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 39 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.6 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6.

Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Hornets play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.4 wins. Their 39 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 24.5.

Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Lakers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 37 games vs an expected win total of 38.9. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 17.3. Their 53.7% home win percentage was as expected (52.7%).

Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.

Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -4.4 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn’t meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.7.

Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Grizzlies could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.5 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 13.6. Their 51.2% home win percentage was better than expected (48.6%).

Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Mavericks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 34.9 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.7%). They won 22% on the road which was much worse than expected (32.6%).

Win 19% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 32 games vs an expected win total of 38.3. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They won 24.4% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.1%). They won 22 at home and were expected to win 22.7. The Wizards may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Hawks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 29 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.4 above what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 9.6. Their 41.5% home win percentage was as expected (39.1%).

Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Bulls play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 22 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 13-28 on the road and were expected to win 10.1. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (36.2%).

Win 18% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.4 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 29.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (33.7%). They won 17.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (20.9%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Suns could take a step back next season.

Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Cavaliers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.8 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 31.7% home win percentage was as expected (31.8%). They won 14.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (19%).

Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Knicks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season’s win percentage. Their 17 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.3 below what oddsmakers’ money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 8-33 on the road and were expected to win 9.1. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (32.3%).





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